Welcome everyone to the 2022 MLB Trade Deadline live blog.
I’m Matt Martell, the baseball editor here at . For the next eight hours, Emma Baccellieri and I will be hanging out here talking baseball while providing updates, analysis and silly commentary as we watch the chaos unfold in real time. Looks like the Twins are getting started, so we will too. Let’s have some fun.
Matt Martell (10:51 AM): Hello, Emma! The Twins got started before us today! They are getting Orioles closer Jorge López to shore up their pretty iffy pitching staff. Seems like a great move.
Emma Baccellieri: (10:52 AM): Jorge López to the Twins! A great pick-up for Minnesota—this is the first year he’s worked full-time out of the bullpen, rather than as a swingman, and he’s been excellent there. First All-Star appearance, 1.68 ERA (241 ERA+), a career-high strikeout rate. But I must say this somewhat bums me out for the Orioles. Trading López—who won’t be a free agent until 2025—is markedly different than trading Trey Mancini, who reaches free agency at the end of this season. The last few months have been the first time in a long time that it’s been fun to be an O’s fan, and at just two-and-a-half games out of a playoff spot, it’s a bummer to see them trading not just short-term rentals like Mancini, but players who could be around for years to come like López.
MM (10:53 AM): I agree. This is such a slap in the face for Orioles fans. It’d be one thing to trade López for controllable hitters who could help Baltimore this year and in the future, considering this team has such a deep bullpen. But trading him for four young pitchers is such a bummer, even if this does give the O’s more pitching depth in the long run.
MM (11:05 AM): Well, Emma. I just realized I haven’t eaten anything yet but am on my fourth cup of coffee. Must be deadline day!
EB (11:06 AM): That’s a dangerous game. Marathon, not a sprint!!
(I’m technically still on my first cup but it’s a large cold brew, so perhaps not within the spirit of “cup.“)
MM (11:07 AM): So, basically, your diet for the entirety of All-Star week.
MM (11:15 AM): Do you have a prediction for where Soto ends up?
EB (11:16 AM): Well, I was about to say I have to stick with my not-fun, un-sexy answer of thinking it’s still more likely that he doesn’t get moved until the winter. But now…
If he does move, I think Padres. I think the Cardinals would be the most logical destination, but the Padres have the front office with the drive to actually make it happen.
MM (11:20): Yesterday, I was still convinced Jerry Dipoto would come out of nowhere and bring Soto to the Mariners. But now, I think you’re right that it’s either the Padres or Cardinals. In my column this morning, I wrote about a few of the wrinkles that each team could use to get him.
Basically, the Padres could possibly trade something like their top six prospects plus Eric Hosmer for Soto and Josh Bell. I don't think the Nationals are too concerned about taking on Hosmer's $13M/year salary if it means getting a major return of prospects.
For the Cardinals, I talked about how they could structure a contract extension of $530 million over 12 years for Soto, with a higher salary concentrated in the middle years, after Goldschmidt and Arenado’s contracts expire or diminish in price.
EB (11:25): I think that makes sense—the timing for the Cards would just be perfect in terms of a big-money extension for Soto right when those two start to come off the books.
But…
It just seems like such a classically A.J. Preller move. Land an elite closer yesterday without giving up any of your top prospects, then turn around and pull this today.
MM (11:27 AM): It does, for sure. But this makes me think the Dodgers are lurking again. Way too early there were reports that the Padres were getting Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals, before the Dodgers swooped in and made a much better offer.
MM (11:29 AM): I hate to say it, but it would be such a buzzkill for Juan Soto to get traded before 5 p.m. ET.
EB (11:30 AM): It really would! We get this at noon and then six hours of, what, waiting for Sean Murphy and Noah Syndergaard to move? Sigh.
MM (11:30 AM): The Nationals could be leaking this to get the Dodgers, Cardinals and others to up their offers.
EB (11:30 AM): But I wouldn’t be surprised if this takes a while. If the leaks are starting in earnest now… could still be hours left to go.
EB (11:43 AM): We’ve moved on to the football analogy portion of the deadline!
I do grasp the logistics here, but this still just seems so early in the day for it.
MM (11:46 AM): The Padres and Nationals reportedly have a deal “in principle” with Soto and Josh Bell going to San Diego for four prospects: C.J. Abrams, OF Robert Hassell III, OF James Wood, RHP Jarlin Susana.
EB (11:48 AM): Wow. Wow! In any other context, that would be an incredibly striking haul — three of the Padres’ top four prospects and four of their top eight, per FanGraphs — but for Soto… I expected even more.
EB (11:49 AM): Especially with Bell in there, too! If this was the price, I’m shocked that the Dodgers, Cardinals, and other teams, too, weren’t in there right to the end.
MM (11:49 AM): Finalizing the deal. No Josh Bell here from Jeff Passan. Others saying it’s done, but Passan is usually the one to break these things.
EB (11:50 AM): Ok, package would make more sense, but still!
MM (11:50 AM): That would make more sense. Need at least five of them, in my opinion, for Soto alone. And then adding Bell? Four is way too light.
MM (11:52 AM): Not done yet.
This deal hinges on one more MLB player
NUTS!
I realize this is excellent analysis here, Emma.
EB (11:54 AM): It’s true! It’s nuts!!!
I mean, what’s most nuts about it is that it’s all-time, crazy, historic haul, and that’s only enough for my reaction to move up to, “O.K., so the Nationals aren’t getting , I can see how this makes sense.”
MM (11:57 AM): Jon Heyman says the other MLB player is Eric Hosmer.
This makes sense, as I wrote this morning. The Nationals aren’t in cost-cutting mode. They want to get as many prospects back as possible.
EB (11:58 AM): Eric Hosmer at first base for the Nationals for the next three and a half years of trudging through this rebuild… completely checks out.
MM (12:01 PM): HAHAHA IMAGINE HOSMER SAYS NO.
EB (12:02 PM): Can you imagine the power he feels right now??
MM (12:04 PM): What would Hosmer’s San Diego teammates says if he is the reason the Padres don’t get Soto and Bell?
EB (12:07 PM): This is just so funny. I hope we eventually get a tick-tock rundown of how this is going for him.
MM (12:08 PM): Congrats, Nats fans: You get to watch Eric Hosmer play first base for the next three years! Unless he says no!
MM (12:10 PM): Live reaction from a Nationals fan: SI’s Claire Kuwana just texted me: “I’m struggling to see the silver linings right now… but i’ll get there.”
This is waiting to become a meme.
EB (12:12 PM): Hosmer approval secured?
MM (12:12 PM): What a great teammate, that Eric Hosmer is, huh!
EB (12:14 PM): So! Six hours until the deadline? And this is where we are?
MM (12:15 PM): Watch the Angels see the return for Soto and say, “Actually, never mind, we’re listening to offers to Shohei Ohtani again.”
MM (12:23 PM): The Nationals traded Ted Williams for Willie McCovey and a lot of other prospects! They win the deal!
EB (12:25 PM): Ha! This is what all of this comes down to for me… sure, maybe James Wood is Willie McCovey. Maybe! Maybe all five of the young players here become All-Stars. But you Juan Soto is Juan Soto.
MM (12:25 PM): Exactly! And that’s why the Padres made this trade.
EB (12:26 PM): AHHHHH
MM (12:27 PM): HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA — this is incredible.
MM (12:35 PM): Here’s the Baseball Trade Values evaluation of the trade:
They note there are specific motivations that the Nationals had for making this trade now, assuming it goes through.
Seems about right. If nothing else, this indicates that the Lerners aren’t just fielding the team to see what they could get in a sale, as the family initially suggested. Instead, new ownership appears likely sooner than later.
EB (12:37 PM): Right — if you’re going to trade him, this is probably close to as good an outcome as you could for, yet it still involves trading Juan Soto, which… fair value doesn’t exist.
EB (12:45 PM): O.K., it’s only one source, but…. if this happens, oh my goodness.
MM (12:45 PM): This comes two minutes after Jon Paul Morosi tweeted the exact opposite.
This is exactly the chaos we needed to keep this deadline fun after a Soto deal was reached.
MM (12:49 PM): Some #analysis from our pal Cronko Tonko!
I told him I’d get Cronko Tonko in an SI story this week, so here we are!
MM (12:50 PM): That makes sense, though. The Padres weren’t going to let this trade collapse because of Eric Hosmer’s $13 million per year.
EB (12:51 PM): Right—there’s no way.
Frankly, it’s incredible we had even an hour to contemplate a world where they pulled this off with offloading Hosmer’s deal and not taking on Corbin’s.
MM (12:54 PM): So does this mean it’s finished? I’ve only seen Nightengale report this, and there’s no context beyond what he’s saying about the deal no longer including Hosmer.
EB (12:55 PM): I’m still waiting for confirmation from at least one more party. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this is it — the same basic package we saw earlier with only a slight adjustment, if any.
EB (12:56 PM): Oh now THIS is interesting.
MM (1:08 PM): Question: Are other teams waiting for this Soto deal to go through before making other trades?
EB (1:08 PM): I’ve been curious about that!
MM (1:08 PM): Right! I mean, is there a version of this trade that happens without Josh Bell, and therefore, he becomes available?
EB (1:10 PM): I suppose it’s possible? But it’s still a bit strange to me we haven’t seen, say, some more bullpen arms move (David Robertson?) or other smaller transactions
MM (1:10 PM): Indeed, it is. Are there some organizations that think this is all going to blow up, so they’re waiting on standby just in case?
MM (1:13 PM): Hmmm intriguing!
EB (1:15 PM): Here’s another one: The Blue Jays have been quiet. Are they going to get in on any of this?
I suppose their biggest need is pitching depth and that’s in kind of short supply. But it still feels odd they haven’t done anything given their position!
MM (1:16 PM): I think the Jays are the perfect team for a Happ/Robertson trade. I also wrote about that in this morning’s column!
MM (1:22 PM): And here’s some Blue Jays buzz:
It would be a nice get for the Jays if they can swing both Iglesias and Noah Syndergaard.
MM (1:24 PM): Also…
Does this mean the deal is done between the Padres and Nationals? Or that there is something else still to come that will change the terms?
EB (1:26 PM): I’m assuming that the deal is still on, sans Hosmer, but the Padres are still trying to figure out how to move him. I feel like a three-way trade should still be possible? But I understand if they’re not willing to attach any additional prospects to move him to the hypothetical third team there.
MM (1:28 PM): I wonder if Josh Bell would go to the third team. Or, if Bell is no longer included.
EB (1:37 PM): And here’s a Blue Jays deal! Albeit not a particularly flashy one — they can use the bullpen help they’ll get from Pop, but I’d expect Toronto to keep trying to make deals elsewhere.
MM (1:40 PM): It’s Anthony Bass and Zach Pop. That sounds reasonable. The Jays definitely need some bullpen reinforcements. This will help.
EB (1:42 PM): Yeah, Bass + Pop is for sure a quality upgrade.
MM (1:58 PM): Well, I guess there’s that!
EB (1:59 PM): Passan, Rosenthal, Nightengale, they have nothing on Victor Oladipo.
MM (2:00 PM): FOUR MORE HOURS!
Let’s reset with another round of predictions: What’s the biggest trade still to come?
EB (2:02 PM): I think we’ll see some kind of splashy deal with the players left on the Cubs. If they package Contreras, Happ and Robertson? That feels about as big as we could get at this point. I’ll make a guess that it would be to the Mets: They could use the catcher and the bullpen help, and they could use a statement move, even though they’re in first place.
MM (2:06 PM): I’m with you on the Mets’ needing to make a statement move, but I truly wonder what that is going to be. I don’t think they give up top prospects Francisco Álvarez and/or Brett Baty for some combination of Contreras, Happ and Robertson, with only Happ controllable beyond this year.
The Cardinals still have prospects to trade and a need for some pitching. I could see a deal where they trade Matthew Liberatore and Juan Yepez to the Giants for Carlos Rodón. Would that be enough for the Giants to agree to it? If not, I could see the Cards including another prospect, too, though not Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker and or Masyn Winn. And surely not Dylan Carlson, since he reportedly was untouchable in the Soto sweepstakes.
MM (2:19 PM): Do you think it’s odd that the 52–51 Orioles would trade away Trey Mancini and Jorge López, but the 40–62 Pirates are not trading Bryan Reynolds?
EB (2:20 PM): I was also surprised the Pirates decided to keep Reynolds—he could have been the best hitter on the market outside of Soto. I guess part of the calculus here is that the immediate future of the NL Central looks like an easier ride than that of the AL East, and so the Orioles probably feel they have to be more ruthless, but it’s curious for sure.
MM (2:21 PM): Right, that checks out. But let’s hold the Reynolds talk for now because of this:
MM (2:26 PM): LET’S GET WEIRD!
EB (2:27 PM): WOW
MM (2:28 PM): I wonder what the Red Sox are getting for helping the Padres out. Other than Hosmer, I mean.
EB (2:28 PM): This really does not feel like a Chaim Bloom deal. Curious!
MM (2:29 PM): You’re right! I feel like there’s gotta be another prospect here, right? San Diego is presumably going to eat some or most of Hosmer’s remaining salary, but still.
MM (2:32 PM): There it is.
Also, I’m very glad we can bring back Cronko Tonko here… because his point is absolutely correct:
EB (2:34 PM): Yeah, this is… I don’t know, man! I assumed would want to take a chance on the rebound potential here, but I’m surprised it was the Dodgers, who, you know, look at that meme.
MM (2:50 PM): I chuckled at this one.
The deals seem to be coming in spurts. Now we’ve settled in for 15 or so minutes with little movement.
MM (3:17 PM): Without Hosmer this is a more balanced trade. This looks like the best the Nats could do other than, well, not trade Juan Soto.
MM (3:21 PM): Also, looks like the pitching market is starting to heat back up again. Several rumors going around now about the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard and Raisel Iglesias and Carlos Rodón of the Giants. Jon Heyman reports that the Phillies could be in on Syndergaard and Iglesias, while Derrick Goold of the says the Cardinals have been in talks with San Francisco.
EB (3:24 PM): I’m truly baffled at how little we’ve heard around Syndergaard today! If the Angels don’t move him, I’m not sure what they’re doing—given how their season has gone, there’s simply not any reason to hang onto him, given that he’s on a one-year deal.
EB (3:41 PM): Well, the Phillies did need center field defense but…. Wow.
EB (3:48 PM): And it feels like the dam broke just now!
MM (3:50): But wait, there’s more!
First, a note on how Ruf fits with the Mets from Joel Sherman:
And now, other updates!
EB (4:00 PM): The Twins really needed starting pitching—Mahle is a big get there. While this season has been a slightly down one for him, he’s under team control for all of next year, too. The prospect return here was no joke, but that’s the cost of doing business for a starter who’s more than a rental with just two hours to the deadline.
MM (4:03 PM): Wow, that’s a crazy good get for the Reds, especially coming on the heels of the Luis Castillo trade with the Mariners. I hate to glorify tanking, but this is about as well as it could’ve gone for Cincinnati
EB (4:07 PM): They could use a reliever, but man, I’d still like to see them grab a catcher!
And now that Houston has its backstop in Christian Vazquez, I wonder how much competition there is for Willson Contreras
MM (4:07 PM): Don’t you dare speak disrespect Tomás Nido!
MM (4:09 PM): O.K. did we miss anything because my head is spinning?
EB (4:10 PM): I don’t think so? We can do more Phillies chat if we want because there’s a lot happening there.
MM (4:10 PM): Right – THE PHILLIES!
I actually really, really like what they’ve done this deadline. They greatly improved their defense at shortstop with Edmundo Sosa on Saturday and today with Brandon Marsh in center field. And now they’ve improved their bullpen with David Robertson. And they won’t lose any offense by going from Didi Gregorius/Bryson Stott and Odúbel Herrera/Matt Vierling to Stott/Sosa and Vierling/Marsh.
MM (4:16 PM): Both Willson Contreras and Ian Happ are in the Cubs’ lineup today.
Obviously things could change quickly, but it’s still worth noting. It’s #HugWatch time.
EB (4:28 PM): Would love to gain access to the inside of A.J. Preller’s mind. Sounds like an incredible, terrifying place.
MM (4:32 PM): ”One crazy, caffeinated psycho brings you inside the mind of another… Emma Baccellieri profiles A.J. Preller. Coming to newsstands near you.”
EB (4:32 PM): Wait did you see?
This is what i got on my walk im literally pouring coffee into a McFlurry right now.
And even i think Preller needs to chill a tad.
MM (4:34 PM): At least it’s not Red Bull.
EB (4:34 PM): So true.
MM (4:35 PM): So… about Brandon Drury?
EB (4:37 PM): I really like him in San Diego! Bolsters that lineup even more, comes with a lot of defensive flexibility… they look like a much bigger threat for October than they did 48 hours ago.
MM (4:41 PM): And now… THIS
Get ready for the Giants to keep Carlos Rodón and Joc Pederson and then trade for Willson Contreras and Ian Happ!
MM (4:43 PM): I wonder if this is the only thing Jerry Dipoto is going to do today. Can’t be, right?
EB (4:44 PM): Yeah, I really thought we were going to see more from them!
Second base was the other obvious area for an upgrade, but admittedly, Adam Frazier’s been hitting a lot better over the last few weeks
MM (4:45 PM): Right, and who exactly would they get to play second who would hit better than him, especially now that the Reds have traded Drury?
EB (4:46 PM): Yep, exactly
MM (4:50 PM): This would be an utter waste for the Cubs, in my opinion, unless they truly think they can extend him before the season ends. Yet, wouldn’t you think if they haven’t done it by now, they probably won’t be able to? Whatever they can get from the Mets or another team has to be better than the draft pick they’d get as compensation for signing elsewhere, right?
EB (4:52 PM): Yeah, I’m confused by this one (ditto if they keep Ian Happ). It just seemed very clear that they stood to gain a little here by making those moves and I’m not sure why they wouldn’t, even if the return somehow isn’t quite what they were originally expecting.
MM (4:53 PM): I guess Happ is slightly different because he’s controllable for one more year. But still, they’re probably better off moving him.
MM (4:56 PM): Looks like the Twins wanted a defensive catcher and will have Gary Sánchez as the DH and backup catcher, with Jose Miranda also seeing time at DH.
MM (4:58 PM) Also, this wasn’t the additional move I was expecting from Dipoto.
EB (5:00 PM): Wow, I’m surprised there’s another piece here! (Also surprised to go check and realize Groome is still just 23… feels like we’ve been hearing about him for a decade.)
MM (5:01 PM): Isn’t Groome the only piece in this trade? I don’t remember a return for Hosmer, though I could be wrong.
EB (5:01 PM): Whoops, you’re right, I was so tangled in the earlier versions that I hadn’t realized a return was never announced.
EB (5:03 PM): Supposedly with more details to come.
MM (5:03 PM): Woahhh!
MM (5:12 PM): The Brewers traded their All-Star closer yesterday and today are getting back Trevor Rosenthal, who was an All-Star closer in 2015.
EB (5:13 PM): Gotta say I completely forgot about him! Wow. (Last pitched in the bigs in 2020 for those keeping track.)
MM (5:22 PM): No wonder they haven’t been able to swing anybody big. Maybe that’ll change as we get to the end here.
EB (5:24 PM): If I’m a Blue Jays fan, I’m really, really pushing for them to make Syndergaard happen—if their only moves today end up as Bass and Pop, that’s gotta be a disappointment.
MM (5:25 PM): I agree with you here, regarding Syndergaard and the Blue Jays. They need at least one more starter.
MM (5:26 PM): I really like this move for the Mariners. They needed one more lefty bat, and they got it. Lamb isn’t a star, but he’s a suitable depth piece.
And the Dodgers didn’t have room for him after acquiring Gallo.
MM (5:28 PM): This is poetry:
EB (5:28 PM): HAHAHA
Still amazed at them extending Daniel Bard, who could have yielded something. Oh, well!
MM (5:30 PM): This would be a fascinating final move:
For those wondering, Juan Soto’s lifetime numbers vs. Pablo López: .348/.483/.739 (8-for-23) with three doubles and two home runs.
MM (5:35 PM): And now the Yankees are in on López, too!
MM (5:36 PM): And Brett Phillips is heading to the Orioles!
EB (5:45 PM): Wow! Nice day for the Twins
MM (5:47 PM): Yes, the Twins have greatly improved their pitching staff. They are a legitimately good team now instead of just the best club in MLB’s weakest division.
MM (5:53 PM): BOOM!
Rejoice, Phillies fans! That’s one heck of a rotation you’ve got now. Really, really impressive deadline showing from Dave Dombrowski.
EB (5:54 PM): Yeah, they really managed to address just about all their needs without having to give up too much! As for the Angels… I mean, their coaching / player dev staff is not who I would count on as the best bet to get things turned around for Moniak, but you’re still talking about a former first overall pick. It’s an interesting return, but not necessarily a bad one.
MM (5:55 PM): THIS IS NUTS—CHAOS!
EB (5:55 PM): WHOA! Well, can say I didn’t see that one coming.
MM (5:55 PM): This is crazy! Bader is hurt right now, so the Yankees must feel comfortable with the medicals.
Bader is from Bronxville, NY. This means Dylan Carlson is the Cardinals’ long-term center fielder, and in return, they get Jordan Montgomery, who’s having a sneaky good year, and he’ll get to pitch in front of a really good Cardinals defense. This is a win-win for both teams. The Yankees get a starting center fielder when Bader comes back, so they can have Judge move back to right field full-time.
EB (6:00 PM): We’ve made it.
MM (6:00 PM): A few deals will still trickle in, so stay tuned, folks.
EB (6:03 PM): Speaking of which…
MM (6:03 PM): You’ve gotta think he’s going to get vaccinated now, right?
EB (6:05 PM): You would think so……
EB (6:07 PM): I still would have preferred to see the Jays prioritize a starter, all else being equal, but at least that gives them something else from today—Merrifield is having the worst year of his career at the plate, but he has two more years under contract and is still a stolen base threat
MM (6:07 PM): Agreed. The Jays needed more pitching. Also:
MM (6:09 PM): I really wonder what teams were offering for Contreras. This feels like a giant missed opportunity for the Cubs, unless they are convinced they can extend/re-sign him.
MM: (6:10 PM): WHAT ARE THE ANGELS DOING?!
EB (6:11 PM): Oh my God. And how many career trades is that for Jesse Chavez now?
MM (6:15 PM): By my count, nine times. Chavez was traded for the first time in 2006, by the Rangers to the Pirates, for Kip Wells!
MM (6:18 PM): After this season, Iglesias has three years and $48 million remaining on the deal he signed this offseason with the Angels. They have to be in cost-cutting mode. Will this be to restock for a Shohei Ohtani mega-deal, or to begin a long-term teardown and rebuild?
Note: this does not mean they will actually re-sign Ohtani. I don’t think he wants to re-sign with the Angels, at least not with how things stand now.
EB (6:20 PM): Yeah, what a strange, strange choice.
MM (6:21 PM): Hold on… the Yankees will make Bader cut his hair!
EB (6:21 PM): !! A devastating loss.
MM (6:27 PM): Well, I think that about wraps things up for us with the live blog. Before we go, we’ll leave you with our big takeaway from Trade Deadline Day. Emma, whatcha got?
EB (6:29 PM): Hard not to go with the obvious here: Look at the Padres! The Juan Soto trade is among the biggest of all time—certainly the biggest in recent memory—and that was only of their moves. (Remember, they extended Joe Musgrove, too!) I don’t think it’s necessarily enough for them to win the division. But it’s enough to make them very interesting in October, and it’s exciting to see a team say that it doesn’t care to hug its prospects and just go way, way, in.
MM (6:33 PM): Absolutely. Just so we’re not both saying the Padres, I want to shout out the Yankees. They greatly upgraded their pitching staff, with Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino and Scott Effross, and boosted their outfield with Andrew Benintendi and Harrison Bader, and they did so without trading any of their top position player prospects. They did have to trade away Jordan Montgomery, but if you look at it as Montas-for-Montgomery, it’s a net gain for them. Bader brings Gold Glove defense and elite speed, and is under club control for another year after this one. Judge gets to move over to right field a lot more often once Bader comes off the IL (he’s out with plantar fasciitis). This is a much better team than the one that had already won 70 games entering play tonight.