If the voting process for the Ballon d'Or were truly fair, Lionel Messi would have 14 Golden Balls to his name instead of eight. The Barcelona legend was by far the best footballer in the world between 2008 and 2021, but had to concede defeat to Cristiano Ronaldo five times, and Luka Modric once, as the Real Madrid duo were rewarded for spearheading their team's unprecedented success in the Champions League.
The generational rivalry between Messi and Ronaldo divided fans, with very little to separate the two superstars in terms of goal output, but there was always a huge gulf in quality. The truth is, Messi never had any equal. Even after being forced to leave Barcelona, the place he'd called home for 21 years, the diminutive maestro was able to claim a final Ballon d'Or after almost single-handedly inspiring Argentina to World Cup glory in Qatar.
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Karim Benzema is the only player who can honestly claim to have beaten Messi to the award while eclipsing him on individual performance, having enjoyed a stellar 2021-22 season for Madrid while the Argentine struggled to settle in his first year at Paris Saint-Germain. For the most part, the system failed Messi, and there is now a chance that it will also fail Lamine Yamal on September 22.
Barcelona's latest jewel, who has just inherited Messi's iconic No.10 jersey, will – if the betting odds are to be believed – have to watch Ousmane Dembele lift the Golden Ball in Paris on Monday evening. The France winger is the overwhelming favourite for the 2025 prize after leading PSG to the treble, but Dembele wasn't better than Yamal last season. Like Messi before him, the 18-year-old is the purists' champion and, in an ideal world, he'd be automatically vaulted to the top of the podium.
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Let's get the raw numbers out of the way first: Dembele recorded 46 goal contributions for PSG in 2024-25, seven more than Yamal managed at Barca. Per 90 minutes, the France international also had a shot conversion rate of 17.4 percent compared to Yamal's 8.1%, created more chances (3 to 1.8), and posted more touches in the opposition box (9.2 to 7.5).
Those statistics suggest that Dembele was more effective than Yamal, but further context is needed. Yamal played 4,548 minutes across all competitions, significantly more than Dembele's total of 3,286. The vast majority of those came in La Liga, too, which is a much more competitive division than Ligue 1. That is backed up by the fact that Barcelona only finished four points ahead of Real Madrid in the Spanish title race, while a whopping 19 points separated runaway French champions PSG and runners-up Marseille. Luis Enrique's side retained their crown with six games to spare, which should never happen in one of Europe's top-five leagues.
Spain's Copa del Rey is also levels above the French equivalent, and Barca had to see off Real Betis, Valencia, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid en route to the trophy, while PSG beat lower-league sides Le Mans, Stade Briochin and Dunkerque before seeing off soon-to-be-relegated Reims to lift the Coupe de France.
Dembele's exploits in the Champions League are, therefore, the main driver for his Ballon d'Or claim. He scored eight goals and laid on six assists in 15 appearances, which was enough to earn Dembele the Player of the Tournament award, but technically speaking, he didn't outperform Yamal. Barcelona's teenage sensation hit nine goals and set up 13 in two fewer games, and it could be argued that he was unfairly penalised for the Blaugrana's semi-final exit at the hands of Inter.
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According to , Yamal also boasted a higher dribbling success rate than Dembele (53.5% to 44.4%), and won more duels (8 to 3.5) per 90 minutes. That means not only was Yamal superior in one-v-one situations, but he also did more meaningful work off the ball, which goes some way to debunking the myth that Dembele was the most monstrous presser in the game last season.
Consistency across the entire campaign must be factored in, too. Yamal stayed at the same incredibly high level all the way through, but Dembele didn't really explode into life until December, and was even dropped from Luis Enrique's squad for PSG's Champions League league-phase clash with Arsenal due to an apparent lack of commitment in training.
As if all that wasn't enough evidence in Yamal's favour, Dembele was also second-best at international level. The 28-year-old only scored twice in seven appearances for France between September and June, while Yamal notched three goals and one assist in the same number of games for Spain.
Crucially, it was Yamal who edged their 'Ballon d'Or play-off' in the Nations League semi-finals, as he scored a superb brace in Spain's thrilling 5-4 win against France after extra-time, while Dembele failed to get on the scoresheet after squandering several clear chances.
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"Today, Lamine made a statement. He proved he’s the best in the world and deserves the Ballon d'Or," Spain boss Luis de la Fuente declared after Yamal's Player-of-the-Match display against France. In truth, that was just one of many similar statements Yamal made in the most important matches last season.
Real Madrid were especially sick of the sight of the teenager by the end of May. La Masia's remarkable academy graduate scored in both of Barca's La Liga victories over their arch-rivals, as well as in their Clasico triumph in the Supercopa de Espana, while he also produced two assists against Los Blancos in the Copa del Rey showpiece as Flick's side ran out 3-2 winners after extra-time.
Yamal found the net against top-six clubs Atletico, Athletic Club and Villarreal, too, while in the Champions League, he scored in each of the knockout rounds. It's normal for talented youngsters to freeze up on the biggest stage, but Yamal seems to relish it.
"Obviously I know I am playing for Barca. I know the importance of that, but I don't think about pressure," Yamal told in April. "I play, enjoy myself… And that's all."
That enjoyment was clear for all to see in Barca's 3-1 win against Benfica in the second leg of their last-16 tie. Yamal provided the moment of magic that broke the deadlock after just 10 minutes, humiliating two Benfica defenders with a delightful dummy after gliding to the edge of the box, before playing in Raphinha to score (albeit with what looked like a mis-hit shot).
Benfica hit back with a quick equaliser, only to be undone by Yamal again, as the Spaniard cut in from the byline to unleash a sublime curling strike that nestled perfectly into the far corner of the net. Going away from goal with such a small target to aim for, it was the kind of effort most players would only dare to attempt on the training ground, but Yamal's audacity is his superpower.
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That remarkable finish against Benfica would have been worthy of winning Goal of the Tournament, but Yamal somehow managed to better it in Barcelona's semi-final clash with Inter. Barca fell 2-0 down inside 21 minutes in the first leg at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, and desperately needed a spark to get back into the game, which Yamal provided on his 100th senior appearance for the club.
After shaking off a challenge from Marcus Thuram on the right flank, Yamal skipped past Henrikh Mkhitaryan and tiptoed into the penalty area. At this point, the wiry attacker was surrounded, but he somehow got off a shot without breaking stride, and it flew in off the post past the completely helpless goalkeeper Yan Sommer.
In that moment, Yamal became the youngest player to score in the last four of the Champions League at 17 years and 291 days old, smashing Kylian Mbappe's previous record at Monaco. There were no remonstrations in the Inter defence afterwards, just a series of stunned faces wondering what on earth had just happened.
It was a feeling they got used to over the next 65 minutes. Yamal didn't deliver any more decisive blows, but he was a constant thorn in Inter's side and practically every Barca attack went through him. He had more shots than anyone else on the pitch (six), completed more dribbles (six), and 17 of his 102 touches came in the opponent's box, the second-most in a Champions League semi-final ever, behind Bayern Munich's Franck Ribery against Real Madrid in 2015. Barca eventually battled to a 3-3 draw, and then-Inter boss Simeone Inzaghi expressed his relief at having survived Yamal's masterclass after the final whistle.
“I have never seen a player like Yamal in the last eight or nine years,” Inzaghi said to . “He is a phenomenon. We had to triple him and obviously, spaces opened up elsewhere.”
Meanwhile, former Manchester United and Bayern midfielder Owen Hargreaves described Yamal as a "cheat code" in the studio, before adding: "I just want to see Lamine Yamal get the ball and everybody else get out of the way."